ADB Keeps Pakistan Growth Forecast at 3.7%
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept Pakistan’s growth forecast at 3.7% for fiscal year 2027.
Inflation is projected at 8.3%, above the central bank’s medium‑term target range of 5–7%.
ADB warns that the outlook faces significant downside risks, including escalation of the Middle East conflict, potential austerity measures by the government, tighter global financing conditions, shortfalls in tax revenue, weather‑related agricultural shocks, and delays in energy‑sector and state‑owned enterprise reforms.
In fiscal year 2026, growth accelerated to 3.7% from 3.2% in 2025, driven by resilient services, a rebound in manufacturing, recovery in agriculture, and stronger private investment. Inflation averaged 7.1% in 2026, up from 4.5% in 2025.
ADB highlighted that Pakistan’s sovereign credit ratings were upgraded by S&P in July 2026 and Moody’s in August 2026, and that the country regained access to international capital markets through Eurobond and Panda bond issuances in April and May 2026. ADB Country Director Emma Fan noted that sustained reform momentum is critical to unlock higher private investment and achieve stronger, more inclusive growth.
