Pakistan Faces 25% Rabi Water Shortage
Pakistan is bracing for a 25% water shortage during the Rabi season that begins on October 1, raising concerns about food security as wheat is the main crop.
Reservoir carryover fell below 9.5 million acre feet, the lowest since 2021. Total storage in Tarbela and Mangla dams dropped from 11.6 million acre feet on September 9 to under 9.5 million acre feet before the season.
The technical committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) will finalize water availability estimates and recommend distribution criteria for the provinces. The Irsa Advisory Committee is expected to approve provincial shares on October 5.
The shortage is expected to revive provincial acrimony, especially between Sindh and Punjab, as Irsa applies a three tier formula that combines fixed shares, adjustments, and historical use. Sindh argues the formula gives it a larger burden.
Last season, Pakistan produced 27.5 million tonnes of wheat against a target of 29.7 million tonnes, leading to imports of one million tonnes to meet a consumption requirement of 31.9 million tonnes.
